確率表 [編集]

各種確率データまとめ。

目次

初手シールドにおけるS・トリガー率、および期待値 [編集]

（最左列はシールドトリガー枚数,小数点第二位以下は切り捨て。5/5はシールド5枚中5枚がS・トリガーという意味）

＼5/54/53/52/51/50/5期待値
40100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.0
3987.5%12.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.9
3876.3%22.4%1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.8
3766.2%30.1%3.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%4.6
3657.3%35.8%6.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%4.5
3549.3%39.8%9.9%0.9%0.0%0.0%4.4
3442.3%42.3%13.6%1.7%0.1%0.0%4.3
3336.1%43.5%17.4%2.8%0.2%0.0%4.1
3230.6%43.7%21.1%4.2%0.3%0.0%4.0
3125.8%43.0%24.6%5.9%0.6%0.0%3.9
3021.7%41.6%27.8%7.9%1.0%0.0%3.8
2918.0%39.7%30.5%10.2%1.5%0.1%3.6
2814.9%37.3%32.9%12.6%2.1%0.1%3.5
2712.3%34.7%34.7%15.3%2.9%0.2%3.4
2610.0%31.8%36.0%18.0%4.0%0.3%3.3
258.1%28.8%36.7%20.7%5.2%0.5%3.1
246.5%25.8%36.9%23.5%6.6%0.7%3.0
235.1%22.9%36.6%26.1%8.3%0.9%2.9
224.0%20.0%35.8%28.6%10.2%1.3%2.8
213.1%17.3%34.6%30.9%12.4%1.8%2.6
202.4%14.7%32.9%32.9%14.7%2.4%2.5
191.8%12.4%30.9%34.6%19.2%3.1%2.4
181.3%10.2%28.6%35.8%20.0%4.0%2.3
170.9%8.3%26.1%36.6%22.9%5.1%2.1
160.7%6.6%23.5%36.9%25.8%6.5%2.0
150.5%5.2%20.7%36.7%28.8%8.1%1.9
140.3%4.0%18.0%36.0%31.8%10.0%1.8
130.2%2.9%15.3%34.7%34.7%12.3%1.6
120.1%2.1%12.6%32.9%37.3%14.9%1.5
110.1%1.5%10.2%30.5%39.7%18.0%1.4
100.0%1.0%7.9%27.8%41.6%21.7%1.3
90.0%0.6%5.9%24.6%43.0%25.8%1.1
80.0%0.3%4.2%21.1%43.7%30.6%1.0
70.0%0.2%2.8%17.4%43.5%36.1%0.9
60.0%0.1%1.7%13.6%42.3%42.3%0.8
50.0%0.0%0.9%9.9%39.8%49.3%0.6
40.0%0.0%0.4%6.5%35.8%57.3%0.5
30.0%0.0%0.1%3.5%30.1%66.2%0.4
20.0%0.0%0.0%1.3%22.4%76.3%0.3
10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%12.5%87.5%0.1
00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0

《メンデルスゾーン》でドラゴンをめくる確率 [編集]

（最左列はドラゴンの投入枚数,小数点第三位以下は切り捨て）

＼0/21/22/21以上
390.00%0.00%100.00%100.00%
380.00%5.12%94.87%100.00%
370.13%9.98%89.87%99.86%
360.40%14.57%85.02%99.59%
350.80%18.89%80.29%99.19%
341.34%22.94%75.70%98.65%
332.02%26.72%71.25%97.97%
322.83%30.22%66.93%97.16%
313.77%33.46%62.75%96.22%
304.85%36.43%58.70%95.14%
296.07%39.13%54.79%93.92%
287.42%41.56%51.01%92.57%
278.90%43.72%47.36%91.09%
2610.52%45.61%43.85%89.47%
2512.28%47.23%40.48%87.71%
2414.17%48.58%37.24%85.82%
2316.19%49.66%34.14%83.80%
2218.35%50.47%31.17%81.64%
2120.64%51.01%28.34%79.35%
2023.07%51.28%25.64%76.92%
1925.64%51.28%23.07%74.35%
1828.34%51.01%20.64%71.65%
1731.17%50.47%18.35%68.82%
1634.14%49.66%16.19%65.85%
1537.24%48.58%14.17%62.75%
1440.48%47.23%12.28%59.51%
1343.85%45.61%10.52%56.14%
1247.36%43.72%8.90%52.63%
1151.01%41.56%7.42%48.98%
1054.79%39.13%6.07%45.20%
958.70%36.43%4.85%41.29%
862.75%33.46%3.77%37.24%
766.93%30.22%2.83%33.06%
671.25%26.72%2.02%28.74%
575.70%22.94%1.34%24.29%
480.29%18.89%0.80%19.70%
385.02%14.57%0.40%14.97%
289.87%9.98%0.13%10.12%
194.87%5.12%0.00%5.12%
0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

山札の上から3枚を表向きにしたときの当たり枚数と確率 [編集]

提督、スリリング・スリー、《コアクアンのおつかい》、《アクアン》(デュエプレ版) 等が該当する。

デッキの当たり枚数
3枚中当たりが
3枚
2枚
1枚
0枚
36枚約72.3%約25.5%約2.2%約0%
32枚約50.2%約40.2%約9.1%約0.6%
28枚約33.2%約45.9%約18.7%約2.2%
24枚約20.5%約44.7%約29.1%約5.7%
20枚約11.5%約38.5%約38.5%約11.5%

特定のカードを1枚以上ドローで引ける確率(40枚デッキ、《伝説の禁断 ドキンダムX》非採用) [編集]

小数は切り捨て、横はカードの採用枚数、上は山札の上から引いたor見た枚数、80%以上は青文字、90%以上は赤文字
例、2マナのカードを12枚採用することで先攻2ターン目に90％の確率で一枚以上手札に引き込める。(初手5枚＋ターン開始時の1ドロー)

＼初手123456789101112131415
1枚12%15%17%20%22%25%27%30%32%35%37%40%42%45%47%50%
2枚23%28%32%36%40%44%47%51%55%58%61%64%67%70%73%75%
3枚33%39%44%49%54%58%63%66%70%73%76%79%82%84%86%88%
4枚42%49%55%60%65%70%74%77%80%83%86%88%90%91%93%94%
5枚50%57%63%69%74%79%81%85%87%90%91%93%94%95%96%97%
6枚57%64%71%76%80%84%87%90%92%94%95%96%97%98%98%98%
7枚63%71%77%81%85%89%91%93%95%96%97%98%98%99%99%99%
8枚69%76%81%86%89%92%94%95%97%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%
9枚74%80%85%89%92%94%96%97%98%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%
10枚78%84%89%92%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
11枚81%87%91%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
12枚85%90%93%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
13枚87%92%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
14枚90%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%
15枚91%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%
16枚93%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%

特定のカードを1枚以上ドローで引ける確率(40枚デッキ、《伝説の禁断 ドキンダムX》採用) [編集]

小数は切り捨て、横はカードの採用枚数、上は山札の上から引いたor見た枚数、80%以上は青文字、90%以上は赤文字
《伝説の禁断 ドキンダムX》を採用している場合ドローで引ける確率がほんの少し上がる為、非採用の時と違い、(3枚/11)が80%、(8枚/4)(9枚/3)が90%以上の確率に達する

＼初手123456789101112131415
1枚12%15%17%20%23%25%28%30%33%35%38%41%43%46%48%51%
2枚24%28%33%37%41%45%48%52%56%59%62%65%68%71%74%76%
3枚34%40%45%50%55%60%64%67%71%74%77%80%83%85%87%89%
4枚43%50%56%61%66%71%75%78%81%84%87%89%91%92%94%95%
5枚51%58%65%70%75%79%82%85%88%90%92%94%95%96%97%97%
6枚58%66%72%77%81%85%88%90%92%94%95%96%97%98%98%99%
7枚65%72%78%82%86%89%92%94%95%96%97%98%98%99%99%99%
8枚70%77%82%87%90%93%94%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%
9枚75%81%86%90%93%95%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
10枚79%85%89%93%95%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
11枚82%88%92%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
12枚85%90%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
13枚88%92%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
14枚90%94%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%
15枚92%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%
16枚94%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%

カードA？枚とカードB4枚が1セット以上手札に揃う確率(40枚デッキ、《伝説の禁断 ドキンダムX》非採用) [編集]

小数は切り捨て、横はカードAの採用枚数、上は山札の上から引いたor見た枚数、80%以上は青文字、90%以上は赤文字
例、光の進化ではないブロッカー12枚と《星門の精霊アケルナル／スターゲイズ・ゲート》4枚が先攻5ターン目に1セット以上手札に揃う確率は63％。

＼初手123456789101112131415
1枚4%6%8%11%13%16%19%22%25%28%31%34%37%40%44%47%
2枚8%12%16%20%25%29%34%38%43%47%52%56%60%64%67%71%
3枚12%17%22%28%34%39%45%50%55%60%65%69%73%77%80%83%
4枚16%22%28%34%41%47%53%59%64%69%73%77%81%84%87%89%
5枚19%26%33%40%47%53%59%65%70%74%78%82%85%88%90%92%
6枚22%29%37%44%51%58%63%69%74%78%81%85%87%90%92%93%
7枚24%32%40%48%55%61%67%72%76%80%83%86%89%91%92%94%
8枚27%35%43%51%57%63%69%74%78%81%84%87%89%91%93%94%
9枚29%37%45%53%59%65%70%75%79%82%85%87%90%91%93%94%
10枚31%39%47%55%61%67%71%76%79%83%85%88%90%91%93%94%
11枚32%41%49%56%62%68%72%76%80%83%85%88%90%91%93%94%
12枚34%42%50%57%63%68%73%77%80%83%86%88%90%91%93%94%

同じ文明のカードが2枚以上手札に揃う確率(40枚デッキ、《伝説の禁断 ドキンダムX》非採用) [編集]

小数は切り捨て、横はカードの採用枚数、上は山札の上から引いたor見た枚数、80%以上は青文字、90%以上は赤文字
例、《天災 デドダム》と《Disジルコン》を4枚ずつ、自然単を12枚、水単と闇単を10枚ずつ採用した場合、自然が20枚、水と闇が18枚ずつになり、先攻2ターン目に自然、先攻3ターン目に水と闇がちょうど90％超えに達する確率になる

＼初手123456789101112131415
4枚6%9%13%17%21%25%30%34%39%43%48%52%57%61%65%69%
5枚20%15%20%25%31%36%42%47%53%58%63%67%72%75%79%82%
6枚15%21%27%34%40%47%53%59%64%70%74%78%82%85%88%90%
7枚20%27%35%43%50%57%63%69%74%79%83%86%89%91%93%95%
8枚25%34%43%51%58%65%72%77%82%85%89%91%93%95%96%97%
9枚31%40%50%58%66%73%79%83%87%90%93%95%96%97%98%99%
10枚36%47%57%65%73%79%84%88%91%94%95%97%98%98%99%99%
11枚42%53%63%72%79%84%88%92%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%
12枚47%59%69%77%83%88%92%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%
13枚53%64%74%82%87%91%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%
14枚58%70%79%85%90%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
15枚63%74%83%89%93%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
16枚67%78%86%91%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
17枚72%82%89%93%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%
18枚75%85%91%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%
19枚79%88%93%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%
20枚82%90%95%97%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%
21枚85%92%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%100%
22枚88%94%97%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%100%100%
23枚90%95%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%

同じ文明のカードが2枚以上手札に揃う確率(40枚デッキ、《伝説の禁断 ドキンダムX》採用) [編集]

小数は切り捨て、横はカードの採用枚数、上は山札の上から引いたor見た枚数、80%以上は青文字、90%以上は赤文字
《伝説の禁断 ドキンダムX》を採用している場合ドローで引ける確率がほんの少し上がる為、非採用の時と違い、(5枚/14)(6枚/11)(7枚/9)(9枚/6)(10枚/5)(11枚/4)(14枚/2)(16枚/1)(19枚/1)が80%、(7枚/12)(8枚/10)(11枚/6)(15枚/3)(17枚/2)が90%以上の確率に達する

＼初手123456789101112131415
4枚7%10%14%18%22%26%31%35%40%45%50%54%59%63%67%71%
5枚11%16%21%26%32%38%43%49%54%60%64%69%73%77%81%84%
6枚16%22%29%35%42%49%55%61%66%71%76%80%83%87%89%92%
7枚21%29%36%44%52%58%65%71%76%80%84%87%90%92%94%96%
8枚26%35%44%52%60%67%73%79%83%87%90%92%94%96%97%98%
9枚32%42%52%60%68%75%80%85%88%91%94%95%97%98%98%99%
10枚38%49%58%67%75%81%85%89%92%94%96%97%98%99%99%99%
11枚43%55%65%73%80%85%90%93%95%97%98%98%99%99%99%99%
12枚49%61%71%79%85%89%93%95%97%98%98%99%99%99%99%99%
13枚54%66%76%83%88%92%95%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
14枚60%71%80%87%91%94%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
15枚64%76%84%90%94%96%98%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
16枚69%80%87%92%95%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%
17枚73%83%90%94%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%
18枚77%87%92%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%
19枚81%89%94%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%
20枚84%92%96%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%100%
21枚87%93%97%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%100%100%
22枚89%95%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
23枚91%96%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%

参考 [編集]

タグ: 一覧再現性事故事故防止手札手札事故